Brent crude futures slipped on Wednesday towards $108, dropping for a fourth straight day, as supply worries eased and on caution ahead of data from China and the United States, the world’s two top oil consumers, www.upstreamonline.com reported.
Numbers due later this week may show China’s exports, factory output and retail sales all edged up in July, in initial signs of the economy stabilising. US government data later today on crude stockpiles will give investors an indication of the country’s demand outlook.
Brent crude slipped 13 cents to $108.05 a barrel early on Wednesday, in its longest losing streak since mid-April.
US oil gained 9 cents to $105.39, after an industry report showed a fall in US crude stocks.
“There is upcoming data from the United States and China that will give the market a sense of the demand outlook for oil,” Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets, Ric Spooner said. “But the short-term outlook on oil prices looks to be on the downside.”
Aside from data, any announcement from the US Federal Reserve on withdrawing its monetary stimulus would also impact oil, Spooner said. A pullback may boost the dollar, weighing on commodities such as oil that are priced in the US currency.
Given the mixed influences affecting oil markets, Spooner expects $102.50 to be a key support for the US benchmark and around $109 a major resistance. For the European marker, the range is narrower, between $105.50 and around $109, he said.
Brent is poised to break a support at $107.40 and head towards $106.76, while US oil is expected to drop to $104.12, as indicated by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci ratio analysis, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.
Brent is also being pressured as risk premiums come off after Iran’s incoming President Hassan Rouhani offered an olive branch to the US in talks on Tehran’s disputed nuclear programme, raising hopes of progress after years of stalemate.
Even though there is a long way to go, the comments are providing comfort to investors who have been on edge over worsening relations between the two. Geo-political worries have kept Brent above $100 a barrel for most of 2012 and this year.
“Such statements are usually for posturing and do not have any real impact at the end of the day,” Spooner said.
“But we have had a change of guard, and people are in a wait-and-see mode to see what comes out of it.”